“Submarines Will Reign in a War with China”. So did Mike Sweeney of George Mason University entitle his recent prize-winning essay in Naval Institute Proceedings. That may be true, but reigning over the seas will require actual submarines. The US Navy has well fewer than the inventory thought needed for a war over Taiwan, and the Chinese Navy has been built for that war. This problem presents four alternatives for naval strategists:
- Increasing the building rate of Virginia-class submarines. This is infeasible in the short run, and questionably so in the long run.
- Increasing the repair rate for Los Angeles-class submarines. This is possible in the short run, but pointless in the long run.
- Shifting attack submarines to where they are more needed. The Navy has limited latitude to move submarines from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
- Building lots of small robotic submarines. While this is technologically uncertain, it is industrially far more feasible.
The choice pivots strategically on the timeframe of expected aggression from the Chinese regime. If we expect that an attack in the next few years, then repairing old Los Angeles-class submarines may be of some utility. If the attack is more than ten years away, then repair is pointless. Regardless, the US Navy may be headed towards a fleet of just 36 attack submarines. At this point, investments should be shifted to development of unmanned submarines, particularly those that can work alongside that fleet of newer Virginia-class manned submarines.
This is most true for the US Navy, but it is arguably so for most others with submarines. The challenge for technologists and industrialists is to demonstrate robotic submersibles with greater range and more reliable communications that can be serviced from impromptu tenders around the Western Pacific. If they can manage that challenging use case, they can serve almost anywhere.
Firms mentioned in this note include Anduril, Atlas Elektronik, Blue Eye Robotics, Boeing, General Atomics, General Dynamics, Huntington Ingalls, Israel Aircraft Industries, Leidos, Saab, Thayer Mahan, and Vigor Industrial.
You can find my full 19-page analysis here: Download On Submarines 20230720.