With this note, I am beginning an ongoing analysis on unmanned ships in naval warfare. After the latest Ukrainian drone-boat attack, I offer five points:
- Last month’s attack on the Russian signals intelligence ship Ivan Khurs, 200 miles from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled shore, signals a sea-change in sea-surface warfare.
- The Russian reaction may be to greatly scale back surface ship plans—and other navies may begin following suit.
- American plans for surface drones are not yet displacing other programs, but they are growing in scope and size.
- Industry can support change agents in the naval bureaucracy with two highly consequential technological development efforts: towards more sophisticated on-board decision-making, and much greater equipment reliability at sea.
- Small, robotic ships will also be very helpful for wartime mobilization, as they offset China’s huge advantage in shipbuilding capacity.
Companies mentioned in this report include IBM, Incat Crowther, L3 Harris, Leidos (including Gibbs & Cox), Saildrone, Swiftships, Vigor Industrial, United States Marine Inc.
I will update this analysis as events warrant. Download my full six-page analysis through the link below:
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