After the events of the past week, I update my ongoing analysis of the conduct of the Russo-Ukrainian War. I upwardly revise my assessment of war termination in the next six months from highly unlikely to merely unlikely. I have four points:
- The “Joyride of the Valkyries” undertaken by the Wagner Group has revealed a complete lack of Russian military reserves.
- This increases the likelihood of a dramatic Ukrainian exploitation, if Ukrainian forces can penetrate Russian defensive lines.
- Industry outside Ukraine continues to learn from Ukrainian experience, slowly.
- Investors should expect investment horizons supported by long-term Russian hostility.
I also offer some insights from this week’s Land Warfare Conference at the Royal United Services Institute in London. I will continue to update my analysis as events warrant. Download my full four-page analysis at the link below:
Recent Comments