27 June 2023

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On Brilliant Munitions: Defense ministries and industries must prepare for the next war with a full embrace of autonomous technologies. Multiple challenges demand that allied military forces embrace a host of emerging technologies for radically expanded autonomy in weaponry. I have five points: Economy. The competing Russian and Ukrainian ways of war are again revealing the compelling case for precision in all weapon systems. Geography. In the future, against modern surveillance and strike technologies, allied forces will fight with difficulty through even thin opposing lines, and at great distances, with their logistics constantly under attack. Demography. Very low birth rates in almost every allied country will provide fewer forces for defense and counter-attack against smash-and-grab autocrats. Maneuver under modern conditions may be very difficult, but still necessary. Technology. All this means that future wars will thus require substituting capital for labor: collaborative, loitering, self-guided weapons with heterogenous payloads accompanying all the troops. This requires rediscovering and updating the old American Way of War: industrial-scale attrition, with information-age technologies. Industry. Development and production of weapons with these technologies may require upstart firms and collaborative alliances. Building precision with mass will certainly mean more production capacity. Investments are flowing, and with a strong demand signal. Firms mentioned in this note include Adarga, Anduril and its acquisition Adranos, BAE Systems Bofors, General Dynamics,...

James Hasik

Political economist of innovation, industry, and international security

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