I explore the question of whether we can predict the nature and timing of military innovation through Cohen, March, and Olsen’s classic (1972) model of the “organized anarchy” of bureaucratic decision-making. I extend their model by leafing into their variables known factors of military innovation found in the literature. I consider how
- Military problems (needs) have political, bureaucratic and financial aspects.
- Innovative solutions have technological, doctrinal, organizational, industrial, and financial aspects.
- Decision-makers match those solutions to their problems, but only through implementing military bureaucracies.
- The windows of opportunity for innovative choices can be fleeting. Post-war recoveries, arms-control treaties, reorganizations, changes in legislators and leaders, and budgetary cycles all provide openings for change.
I conclude that such a framework, implemented in a mathematical model, may help both predict and explain how and when military innovations occurs. Required next is a great deal of reading and variable-coding, and some modest degree of mathematical modeling.
I will develop this into a research project as resources are available. For now, download my nine-page working paper through the link below. Comments by e-mail ([email protected]) are most welcome.
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