I have been analyzing the record of the past year-and-a-half of military aviation in the Russo-Ukrainian War, including operational threats, technological and geopolitical trends, and economic realities. I offer two important points, and a set of industrial predictions, regarding aircraft and missiles:
- The power of air defenses on both sides explains why manned aviation remains a minor contributor in the Russo-Ukrainian War.
- The power of precision weapons against aircraft on the ground indicates that manned aviation may be a lesser contributor in a future war against China.
- Long-term demand will trend away from the F-35, towards the B-21 and the LRASM, and generally towards ground-based precision weapons.
Companies mentioned in this analysis include Aero Vodochody, Israel Aircraft Industries, Lockheed Martin, MBDA, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Saab.
Download my six-page research note through the link below. Comments by e-mail ([email protected]) are most welcome.
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